FRFantasy Rankings
Week 7 · 2026 season · Half-PPR · Updated

Fantasy Rankings

About

What the projections are, how to read them, how well they work, and where the data comes from.

What this is

A free hobby project that projects weekly fantasy points for quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends.

Free to useNo ads, no paywall, no sign-up.
No accountsThere is nothing to log in to.
Stays in your browserYour saved roster is kept only in this browser. If you connect Sleeper, only your username is sent, to Sleeper. Nothing goes to our servers.

How the projections work

It predicts how many fantasy points one player will score in one game.

1
Learn from 2015–2023 gamesEvery regular-season game in those years.
2
Test on 2024–2025 games it never sawThe model never saw these games while learning.
3
Project this weekOne number for every player, updated weekly.

Separate checks stop the results of the game being predicted from leaking into the inputs.

What it looks at

Six kinds of information go into every projection.

Recent pointsAverage over the last 3 games and the last 8 games.
WorkloadTargets, carries and pass attempts in the previous game.
TeamHow many points the team has scored recently.
OpponentHow many points the opponent allows to that position.
Betting lineTeam implied points, point spread and win probability.
Home or awayWhether the player's team plays at home.

How to read a projection

Every row on the Rankings board looks like this one. This example is Caleb Williams, the top-ranked quarterback in Week 7.

#PlayerProjectionWin
  1. Rank 1, tier 1
    Caleb WilliamsCHI
    vs NE
    20.5
    57%
Rank blockThe player's rank at their position this week. The block's color is the player's tier.
Tier colorPlayers in the same tier share a color. On Rankings, a dotted line in that color marks where each new tier starts.
Range barThe dot is the projection. The shaded band runs from the projection minus the typical miss to the projection plus the typical miss. Every bar uses the same 0 to 35 point scale.

Tiers and the starter line

Tiers group players whose projections are close. A dotted line marks a drop in projection between two tiers, and the rank blocks take the color of their tier. The model cannot tell most neighbouring players apart, so a tier means "grouped by where the biggest drops fall", not "provably different". Tiers are drawn for the top 36 at each position and everyone below shares a final Rest tier. Tier lines show when the board is sorted by projection.

The solid blue starter line marks where starters end in your league: teams times starting slots at that position. It starts at 12 teams with 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR and 1 TE. Change the league on the Rankings page. Flex spots are not counted.

Model vs recent form

The Form page lists the gap between a player's projection and their average points over their last 3 games this season. Early in the season that is every game played so far, so the last 3 and last 8 averages match. The model weighs more than recent scoring, so a hot streak can sit far above the projection. A gap is not a prediction of a slump. Players with no games this season are left out.

How accurate it is

These numbers come from 2024 and 2025 games the model never saw. A projection is a best guess, not a promise. Each week's projections are saved before games and checked on the Results page.

PositionTypical missScale 0–6 pointsRank correlation
QB
4.32 pts
036
0.72
RB
3.03 pts
036
0.74
WR
2.82 pts
036
0.67
TE
2.09 pts
036
0.63
K
3.78 pts
036
0.20

Typical miss is how many points a projection is off in a normal game, on average, so a smaller number is better.

Rank correlation shows how well the model orders players from best to worst, where 1.00 is a perfect order and 0 is no better than chance.

What it can't know

Not in the model

The model does not know about trades, depth-chart news, or injuries that happened after the data was gathered. Check the status tag (Questionable, Out, IR) next to each player before you set a lineup.

  • 01Rookies and players with no recent games rest on less information, so treat their projections with extra care.
  • 02Each player gets one number. The band around it shows the typical miss for that position, not a true interval.
  • 03Only quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends are covered.
  • 04Lineup odds add each starter's points curve and treat players as independent, except a quarterback and his own receiver, who are counted as linked. An Out starter counts as 0 points.

Scoring

Half-PPR with 100/200-yard bonuses (project league rules, see ARCHITECTURE.md).

Half-PPREach reception is worth half a point.
Yardage bonusesExtra points for 100-yard and 200-yard games.
Your league sizeScoring is fixed at half-PPR. Teams and starting slots change where the starter line falls.

Data sources and licensing

Three public sources feed the projections.

  • nflverse-dataPlayer statistics and weekly injury reports.CC BY 4.0
  • nflverse nfldataSchedules, results and betting lines.Public data
  • Sleeper public APIStatus tags such as Questionable, Out and IR. It also provides your league and roster if you choose to connect Sleeper. This site is free and non-commercial.Public API

The projections are our own work built from that data, and are not endorsed by nflverse. The nflverse player data is shared under the CC BY 4.0 license, which asks for credit to nflverse.

Disclaimer

Projections are estimates for entertainment and research. They are not betting or financial advice, and they carry no guarantee of accuracy. This site is not affiliated with the NFL or any team.